The procurement of energy, such as electricity or natural gas, sets companies with a range of tasks. A central question arises concerning the appropriate purchasing strategy:
At what time should the purchase be done and how much should be purchased? Different procurement trends can be implemented to define a procurement strategy. In addition, market indexing should also be taken into account in order to determine which quantities should be purchased via the Spot market, and which amounts should priced in advance.
Depending on the selected procurement trigger and/or the Spot market share, there are increased opportunities in the procurement process for companies, but also increased risks.
In order to be able to estimate, or quantify, the opportunities or risks, depending on the procurement model, a statistical risk analysis tool can be used. The risk tool compares different procurement strategies with regard to the historical price development of the Spot and future markets, and also determines the results of the respective procurement strategy with regard to possible future price developments. In this case, the subordinate commodity prices for coal, gas or Carbon dioxide emission are analysed accordingly. For the evaluation of the individual risks, the current and simulated price data are combined with the respective requirements structure.
As a result, one receives a robust analysis for which procurement strategy is the most suitable in order not to overstep the given risks while, in parallel, maintaining biggest possible chances.
The risk tool used is used by many European energy suppliers as well as large energy consumers as a risk management tool.